Comments on: Everything you need to know about this Sunday’s lower house election http://www.stippy.com/japan-politics/2009-japan-lowerhouse-election-cheat-sheet/ A fresh look at Japan, by gaijins for gaijins! Wed, 08 Feb 2012 07:44:20 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v= By: saute guy http://www.stippy.com/japan-politics/2009-japan-lowerhouse-election-cheat-sheet/comment-page-1/#comment-81749 saute guy Tue, 15 Sep 2009 13:13:04 +0000 http://www.stippy.com/?p=1546#comment-81749 Ibuki, Yamazaki and Yosano were other big losses for the LDP. Machimura, who is the head of the Machimura faction would have been a likely candidate to replace Aso but couldn't because he lost his local seat. As was the case with a few others (like Koike that red mentioned above and her friendly rival, Noda) he managed to keep a seat in the lower house thanks to the hirei system. Quite an interesting concept, eh. You've also got to laugh at poor old Nikai. He heads a faction called the Nikai faction. While he kept his seat, every single other lower house member who was in his faction lost their seats. I bet he is a bit lonely in his 'faction meetings' these days. Ibuki, Yamazaki and Yosano were other big losses for the LDP.
Machimura, who is the head of the Machimura faction would have been a likely candidate to replace Aso but couldn’t because he lost his local seat. As was the case with a few others (like Koike that red mentioned above and her friendly rival, Noda) he managed to keep a seat in the lower house thanks to the hirei system. Quite an interesting concept, eh.
You’ve also got to laugh at poor old Nikai. He heads a faction called the Nikai faction. While he kept his seat, every single other lower house member who was in his faction lost their seats. I bet he is a bit lonely in his ‘faction meetings’ these days.

]]> By: red http://www.stippy.com/japan-politics/2009-japan-lowerhouse-election-cheat-sheet/comment-page-1/#comment-81735 red Tue, 08 Sep 2009 17:01:14 +0000 http://www.stippy.com/?p=1546#comment-81735 It would be my pleasure, ビャリキ! Out of the party leaders, LDP's Aso, DPJ's Hatoyama and Your Party's Watanabe all romped it in. The leaders of Komeito and People's New Party (PNP) both lost their seats (unheard of!) while the leaders of the Communist Party and New Party Nippon just snuck over the line. The victory of Tanaka from the New Party Nippon was particularly symbolic as he had stood against Fuyushiba, a big wig from the Komeito. Okawa from the Happiness Realization Party never really had a chance. Not only did the PNP lose their leader, they also lost one of the two Kamei's (from Shimane). With 308 seats in the lower house, the DPJ just fell short of a super majority so have been forced into a coalition government with both PNP and SDP in order to get their policy through the Upper House. I am quite worried how much negotiating power the PNP could wield (especially the recent about face by the DPJ on privatizing the post-office.) As for the Happiness Realization Party, I've posted a brief summary on my previous article about their election strategy. See here: http://www.stippy.com/japan-politics/happiness-realization-party-1/#comments Only three of the candidates that the Happiness Realization Party announced official support for won their seats, the rest lost in the wave of support for the DPJ: Hokkaido 11: Nakagawa lost. Fair enough I suppose but quite a scalp for the DPJ all the same. Kanagawa 1: DPJ's candidate beat Matsumoto (but he stole a seat in parliament via the hirei system.) Kanagawa 2: Suga snuck over the line. Don't get me started. Tokyo 3: Ishihara #3 lost to the DPJ candidate (by a comfortable margin). Tokyo 10: DPJ's Kawabata beat Koike to the post by about 9,000 votes. Although Koike was reinstated in parliament due to a high positioning in the hirei system this was a huge upset. Koike was widely rumored as a strong candidate to takeover from Aso but was forced to pull her head in after not even being able to win her own seat (on her own strengths). Ebata seems to be quite business savvy (she sits on the board of Astellas) and so should be quite a big contributor for the DPJ. Osaka 17: Nishimura (thankfully) struggled to get more than 1/3 of the votes of the winning DPJ candidate Fukui 1: With Fukui being one of only four prefectures to unilateraly elect LDP candidates, Inada marginally beat her DPJ opponent (by less than 7,000 votes). The other three LDP prefectures were Kochi, Shimane and Tottori. Gifu 5: Furuya lost his own seat (by about 5%) but was returned to parliament via the hirei system. Yamaguchi 4: Abe trounced his DPJ opponent. In the end the only former PM to lose his seat was Toshiki Kaifu although Yoshiro Mori came pretty close, too. Fukuoka 7: Koga retained his seat LDP also won Gunma 4, Gifu 4, Wakayama 3, Tottori 1 while the DPJ and their supporters won Yamanishi 2, Shizuoka 1, Miyazaki 1. It would be my pleasure, ビャリキ!

Out of the party leaders, LDP’s Aso, DPJ’s Hatoyama and Your Party’s Watanabe all romped it in. The leaders of Komeito and People’s New Party (PNP) both lost their seats (unheard of!) while the leaders of the Communist Party and New Party Nippon just snuck over the line. The victory of Tanaka from the New Party Nippon was particularly symbolic as he had stood against Fuyushiba, a big wig from the Komeito. Okawa from the Happiness Realization Party never really had a chance.

Not only did the PNP lose their leader, they also lost one of the two Kamei’s (from Shimane). With 308 seats in the lower house, the DPJ just fell short of a super majority so have been forced into a coalition government with both PNP and SDP in order to get their policy through the Upper House. I am quite worried how much negotiating power the PNP could wield (especially the recent about face by the DPJ on privatizing the post-office.)

As for the Happiness Realization Party, I’ve posted a brief summary on my previous article about their election strategy. See here: http://www.stippy.com/japan-politics/happiness-realization-party-1/#comments

Only three of the candidates that the Happiness Realization Party announced official support for won their seats, the rest lost in the wave of support for the DPJ:

Hokkaido 11: Nakagawa lost. Fair enough I suppose but quite a scalp for the DPJ all the same.
Kanagawa 1: DPJ’s candidate beat Matsumoto (but he stole a seat in parliament via the hirei system.)
Kanagawa 2: Suga snuck over the line. Don’t get me started.
Tokyo 3: Ishihara #3 lost to the DPJ candidate (by a comfortable margin).
Tokyo 10: DPJ’s Kawabata beat Koike to the post by about 9,000 votes. Although Koike was reinstated in parliament due to a high positioning in the hirei system this was a huge upset. Koike was widely rumored as a strong candidate to takeover from Aso but was forced to pull her head in after not even being able to win her own seat (on her own strengths). Ebata seems to be quite business savvy (she sits on the board of Astellas) and so should be quite a big contributor for the DPJ.
Osaka 17: Nishimura (thankfully) struggled to get more than 1/3 of the votes of the winning DPJ candidate
Fukui 1: With Fukui being one of only four prefectures to unilateraly elect LDP candidates, Inada marginally beat her DPJ opponent (by less than 7,000 votes). The other three LDP prefectures were Kochi, Shimane and Tottori.
Gifu 5: Furuya lost his own seat (by about 5%) but was returned to parliament via the hirei system.
Yamaguchi 4: Abe trounced his DPJ opponent. In the end the only former PM to lose his seat was Toshiki Kaifu although Yoshiro Mori came pretty close, too.
Fukuoka 7: Koga retained his seat

LDP also won Gunma 4, Gifu 4, Wakayama 3, Tottori 1 while the DPJ and their supporters won Yamanishi 2, Shizuoka 1, Miyazaki 1.

]]> By: ビャリキ http://www.stippy.com/japan-politics/2009-japan-lowerhouse-election-cheat-sheet/comment-page-1/#comment-81725 ビャリキ Mon, 07 Sep 2009 10:28:56 +0000 http://www.stippy.com/?p=1546#comment-81725 Thank you Can Red update his readers and give those of us who are not able to approach any detailed results, infos on how the results turned out to be, especially in those cases he mentioned here above? Thanks again for very interesting "cheat-sheet" Thank you
Can Red update his readers and give those of us who are not able to approach any detailed results, infos on how the results turned out to be, especially in those cases he mentioned here above?
Thanks again for very interesting “cheat-sheet”

]]> By: Your Party Misses the Boat « Insular, Extraordinary http://www.stippy.com/japan-politics/2009-japan-lowerhouse-election-cheat-sheet/comment-page-1/#comment-81705 Your Party Misses the Boat « Insular, Extraordinary Thu, 03 Sep 2009 05:06:07 +0000 http://www.stippy.com/?p=1546#comment-81705 [...] had planned it better and were more aggresive (like the Happiness Realization Party who basically went on a rampage), they were likely to get 7 [...] [...] had planned it better and were more aggresive (like the Happiness Realization Party who basically went on a rampage), they were likely to get 7 [...]

]]> By: Our Man in Abiko http://www.stippy.com/japan-politics/2009-japan-lowerhouse-election-cheat-sheet/comment-page-1/#comment-81684 Our Man in Abiko Fri, 28 Aug 2009 15:48:19 +0000 http://www.stippy.com/?p=1546#comment-81684 A brilliant roundup. Thanks for the heavy lifting, now I'll lie down. A brilliant roundup. Thanks for the heavy lifting, now I’ll lie down.

]]> By: saute guy http://www.stippy.com/japan-politics/2009-japan-lowerhouse-election-cheat-sheet/comment-page-1/#comment-81680 saute guy Fri, 28 Aug 2009 03:37:47 +0000 http://www.stippy.com/?p=1546#comment-81680 I don't think you even need to go in to that amount of detail to enjoy this week's election. My advice is to keep things simple and just take your list of former LDP Prime Ministers and watch the fall. Toshiki Kaifu (Aichi 9) Yoshiro Mori (Ishikawa 2) Yasuo Fukuda (Gunma 4) Shintaro Abe (Yamaguchi 4) Taro Aso (Fukuoka 8 ) No former PM has ever been defeated on election day since Ishibashi in '63. You'll have pretty good odds this time. Does anyone know if there is a betting site for Japanese elections, too? I'd be tempted to make a book this time. I don’t think you even need to go in to that amount of detail to enjoy this week’s election. My advice is to keep things simple and just take your list of former LDP Prime Ministers and watch the fall.
Toshiki Kaifu (Aichi 9)
Yoshiro Mori (Ishikawa 2)
Yasuo Fukuda (Gunma 4)
Shintaro Abe (Yamaguchi 4)
Taro Aso (Fukuoka 8 )

No former PM has ever been defeated on election day since Ishibashi in ’63. You’ll have pretty good odds this time. Does anyone know if there is a betting site for Japanese elections, too? I’d be tempted to make a book this time.

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